Post-Election Market Gains, Why They Never Last
By Sophie Shen
November 20, 2024
Source: Morningstar/Ibbotson Associates
Since the S&P 500 Index began, 14 different presidents have been elected over 23 election years. 19 of the 23 election years have provided positive performance regardless of party affiliation.
The day after the 2024 presidential election saw a surge in U.S. stocks, a slight strengthening of the USD against the Canadian dollar, and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 jumped to a record high, rising between 2.5%-3.6%. In Canada, Toronto’s Stock Exchange’s index closed up 1.06%, driven primarily by energy, financials, and technology stocks, such as Bitfarms, climbing 18% after election day. The bond market has retreated, as yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose significantly. This primarily reflected investors' overstated excitement and optimism for Trump's promises of deregulation and corporate tax cuts. While Canadian and American markets achieved significant highs in the short term, Trump's long-run economic benefits still need clarification. The initial euphoric surge should not be misconstrued as long-term growth.
Stock market surges have a history of correlation with election results in the states, predominantly by the public expectations for the winning candidate’s promises for good economic times. The Trump campaign has repeatedly talked about reducing corporate tax rates to as low as 15% and ending taxes on tips. Despite the Fed’s cuts on interest rates by 0.25% in October and November, Treasury yields and equities rose. The rise in yields has bolstered the USD, while the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates, pushing the USD/CAD exchange rate to above 1.40 in the past 2 months. The increased willingness to invest in stock options demonstrates the positive prospective growth of Trump's policy.
However, the post-election market rallies are often short-lived. In the weeks following Trump’s reelection, the S&P 500 decreased approximately 2% two weeks after election day, while the Canadian TSX index rose modestly about 0.5%. Inflation rates in both the U.S and Canada have stayed in a downward trend below the targeted rates, exhibiting the limits of consumer expectations for growth. These fluctuations emphasize the fickle nature of the market as market trajectories are significantly influenced by inflation rates and monetary policy rather than political changes.
The Trump administration’s resolutions for tax cuts and deregulations might lead to growth in the short term. Yet it is impossible to ignore the consequences of high tariffs, deportation, and reduced immigration that Trump's policies may ignite, warned by the sixteen Nobel-prized economists. Trump’s tariff plan of imposing 10-20% universal tariffs on American imports and up to 60% on China may act as an inflationary tax. Worse, the universal tariffs may spark retaliatory tariffs, harkening back to 2018, when the Trump administration increased tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum products from Canada, sparking Canadian countermeasures on U.S imports. These concerns have not reached deaf ears as a portion of investors do not have confidence in Trump’s economic plan. Concerned voices eventually dampened the frenzied enthusiasm resulting from election night.
While Trump’s fiscal policy agenda has little impact on the long-run market trends, it does have a specific impact on industry sectors. Post-election U.S energy markets, notably fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), experienced considerable rally. However, renewable energy companies experienced headwinds. First Solar, one of the largest American manufacturers of solar panels, stock prices fell 16.1% the morning after election night. Trump’s promise to repeal Biden’s “Socialist Green New Deal” from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and his plan to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement may have significant consequences in the clean energy sector, slowing the transition to green energy and falling back on fossil fuels. In Trump's second term, decreased federal spending on renewable energy initiatives will be expected. However, renewable energy's future remains strong, as private and state-level investments will continue. Despite the Republican trifecta, many Republican districts have disproportionately benefited from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. A bill to repeal parts of the IRA would ideally be inhibited in Congress, preventing an economically backward step.
Source: First Solar
The optimistic market performance in the first week of November cannot be treated as an indication of future economic growth. Tax cuts may promise short-term growth, but short-term reactions are hardly a prediction for the bigger picture especially as issues such as tariffs and deportation further implicate the U.S economy.
The shifts in U.S markets and economic trends will inevitably echo across the border. Trump’s first term saw the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline and protectionist tariffs levied against Canada. Trump promises to reinstate similar "America First" tariffs in his second term. Trump’s undermining of renewable energy initiatives may come at a cost to Canada’s clean energy initiatives, given how integrated the Canadian energy and manufacturing sectors are in U.S markets. Canadian energy exports to the U.S totaled $125 billion in 2023, 89% of Canada’s total energy exports. Uncertainties around tariffs could encourage volatility in the Canadian financial markets. In interconnected economic landscapes, Canada’s economy is inextricably linked to the policy decisions and economic trends on the other side of the border.